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This story was printed from Anchordesk,
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Ignore e-Book Hype ... For Now
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| By AnchorDesk Staff: ZDNet AnchorDesk |
| Friday, September 15, 2000 |
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I remember the first electric toothbrushes. They'd revolutionize dental care.
They flopped.
Until companies like Water Pik, Sonicare and others came along with better technology.
Similar thing's happening with electronic books (e-books) -- those devices and software that let you download and read digitized works. Lots of hype, some sales, but not enough to alter the industry. Only for a time, though. I'll tell you why and how e-books will eventually succeed. And why your local college campus holds one of the keys.
E-BOOK MARKET SIZE
First, how big is the potential e-book market? Big, perhaps. Andersen Consulting predicts the consumer e-book market will reach $2.3 billion by 2005, with 28 million people using e-book reading devices.
Microsoft, which recently cut an e-book deal with Amazon, thinks 100,000 titles could be for sale by the end of next year.
Still, a more sober assessment from Jupiter Communications finds only 50,000 e-book hardware devices sold in the U.S., with an estimated 1.9 million by the end of 2005 -- a number too small to drastically change how most publishers think about delivering books, according to Jupiter.
PLATFORM SCRAMBLE
One obstacle to growth: lack of a standard platform. This will continue to frustrate consumers. Some of the leading e-book players include:
- Microsoft's Reader -- software using ClearType technology to make on-screen reading easier.
- Adobe's Glassbook Reader -- free reading software that claims true fidelity to a book.
- Gemstar's Rocket eBook -- an e-book hardware device about the size of a paperback book.
- Gemstar's SoftBook Reader -- a device weighing about 2.9 pounds that allows you to purchase and read electronic newspapers, magazines, books and documents.
- NetLibrary's Peanut Press -- publisher of contemporary books, newspapers and magazines for reading on handhelds.
- Aportis' AportisDoc -- a file format for displaying text documents on handheld devices.
NAPSTER EFFECT
One thing scaring e-publishers: the Napster effect. They want no part of what's happened to the recording industry.
To protect copyrights, book publishers are turning to a hot new technology: digital rights management (DRM). DRM helps prevent piracy. One method involves sealing content in electronic boxes protected by mathematical codes, and then requiring a "key" to get access. There are others.
COLLEGE E-TEXTBOOKS
This is where colleges come in. If you're a student at some medical and dental schools, you're now required to purchase e-textbooks.
Students may balk, but publishers win by saving on printing costs, and they can charge a recurring fee for e-book upgrades. Plus they prevent you from making copies by employing DRM methods. One company pushing this idea is Vital Source Technology.
Jupiter sees this e-textbook subscription model as an opportunity for the savvy publisher -- along with electronic travel books.
DON'T BUY HYPE
For now, though, e-books will remain a niche, for at least five years. Then watch out. As e-book hardware prices fall, consumer awareness and demand build and today's college students enter the mainstream, e-books should enjoy a nice ride -- toward the end of this decade.
But they won't replace the standard paperback.
I still have an old-fashioned toothbrush -- as a backup. And I still use dental floss.
Have you read an e-book? Would you like to? Tell me about it by hitting TalkBack below. Or go to my Berst Alerts Forum where a discussion in under way right now. And be sure to take our QuickPoll.
