After the PC, what next? My proposal for the next platform

AnchorDesk

After the PC, what next? My proposal for the next platform

David Coursey
Executive Editor, AnchorDesk
Monday, September 24, 2001

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What's the next big thing? What is going to give people a reason to buy a new computer? Hint: It's not a new Microsoft operating system.

While computers have made major contributions to our business lives, they aren't nearly so prevalent in our homes. At least not in the sense that they are specifically tailored for home applications, as opposed to running what are essentially business apps in the comfort of our dens and home offices.

While shared printers and files were the driving force bringing local area networks--notably Novell Netware--into offices, shared video and entertainment will drive home networking. That, and wireless technology, with the forthcoming 802.11a standard and Bluetooth solving most home-wiring problems.

KEY TO THIS EFFORT is a new operating system. Or at least a vastly simplified version of something that already exists. And we need computers capable of providing command and control of home entertainment--and they can't be very expensive.

This is going to sound funny coming from me, someone who has never owned such a device, but I am convinced that the next stage in the evolution of personal computing will be dominated by what today we call game consoles.

Here are the issues I am trying to solve:

How do we make home computers so easy to use that everyone can actually use them?
How will we make all the devices in a home--TV, satellite receiver, stereo, security system, and telephones--work together in a single network?
How do we get to something more stable, more secure, and easier to use than Windows without having to kill Windows first?

The answer to all these questions (and more) lies in the evolution of machines like the Sony PlayStation and Microsoft's forthcoming Xbox. The goal is to make these machines the primary entertainment devices in people's homes, as well as the control mechanism for a variety of appliances, home security/control, and telephony devices as they became available to support this new home architecture.

I EXPECT HOMES to have several of these machines and, potentially, special-purpose devices like Internet radios and IP telephones that would also use the network. At the heart of this home system would be a modular server, which consumers could expand in order to add new features.

Fully built out, the server might include the functions of a router, firewall, file server, print service, satellite television tuner, digital video recorder, digital music and media library, telephone switch, appliance control center, home security controller, and other devices. Or it might include only some of these features, but be capable of interfacing with a variety of third-party devices.

It is possible that instead of a single server, customers will purchase a number of smaller devices--like today's stereo or home theater components--each capable of being networked to the others. I think shared storage would be nice, so a single hard drive (properly backed up) could serve all the home system's needs (but I am negotiable on that point).

DESKTOP/LAPTOP COMPUTERS would also connect to this network and continue their role as the primary platform for work applications used at home.

What's Microsoft's role in all this? Well, it's possible that Redmond could put all this together, though I am not expecting that to occur. I see this as what happens after Windows, rather than something that Windows evolves into.

Is Microsoft up to the task? Can it create a new, essentially from-scratch OS for the home? Yes, it's possible, though unlikely. Home computing and entertainment could easily prove to be Microsoft's Achilles' heel.

IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE that I am not proposing a frontal assault on the Windows franchise, although over a period of years this new home computer could evolve into a work-at-home and maybe even a work-at-the-office machine.

My hope is this emphasis on non-business use lets this new architecture fly under Microsoft's radar long enough for something useful to be created without Redmond torpedoing it.

It is clear to me that Windows will never be secure enough, stable enough, or easy enough to use to make computers truly ubiquitous in people's lives. We need something that combines the best features of consumer electronics with those of the Internet and personal computing. Doing this requires a new platform and, after considerable thought, this how I think we could get one.

Tomorrow, I will name the one company best positioned to make this a reality. You may be surprised.

Do you think the next step in home computing is moving beyond the PC? TalkBack to me.

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