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Ignore e-Book Hype ... For Now |
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AnchorDesk Staff ZDNet AnchorDesk Friday, September 15, 2000 |
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First, how big is the potential e-book market? Big, perhaps. Andersen Consulting predicts the consumer e-book market will reach $2.3 billion by 2005, with 28 million people using e-book reading devices. Microsoft, which recently cut an e-book deal with Amazon, thinks 100,000 titles could be for sale by the end of next year. Still, a more sober assessment from Jupiter Communications finds only 50,000 e-book hardware devices sold in the U.S., with an estimated 1.9 million by the end of 2005 -- a number too small to drastically change how most publishers think about delivering books, according to Jupiter. PLATFORM SCRAMBLE
One obstacle to growth: lack of a standard platform. This will continue to frustrate consumers. Some of the leading e-book players include:
- Microsoft's Reader -- software using ClearType technology to make on-screen reading easier.
- Adobe's Glassbook Reader -- free reading software that claims true fidelity to a book.
- Gemstar's Rocket eBook -- an e-book hardware device about the size of a paperback book.
- Gemstar's SoftBook Reader -- a device weighing about 2.9 pounds that allows you to purchase and read electronic newspapers, magazines, books and documents.
- NetLibrary's Peanut Press -- publisher of contemporary books, newspapers and magazines for reading on handhelds.
- Aportis' AportisDoc -- a file format for displaying text documents on handheld devices.
One thing scaring e-publishers: the Napster effect. They want no part of what's happened to the recording industry. To protect copyrights, book publishers are turning to a hot new technology: digital rights management (DRM). DRM helps prevent piracy. One method involves sealing content in electronic boxes protected by mathematical codes, and then requiring a "key" to get access. There are others. COLLEGE E-TEXTBOOKS
This is where colleges come in. If you're a student at some medical and dental schools, you're now required to purchase e-textbooks. Students may balk, but publishers win by saving on printing costs, and they can charge a recurring fee for e-book upgrades. Plus they prevent you from making copies by employing DRM methods. One company pushing this idea is Vital Source Technology. Jupiter sees this e-textbook subscription model as an opportunity for the savvy publisher -- along with electronic travel books. DON'T BUY HYPE
For now, though, e-books will remain a niche, for at least five years. Then watch out. As e-book hardware prices fall, consumer awareness and demand build and today's college students enter the mainstream, e-books should enjoy a nice ride -- toward the end of this decade. But they won't replace the standard paperback. I still have an old-fashioned toothbrush -- as a backup. And I still use dental floss. Have you read an e-book? Would you like to? Tell me about it by hitting TalkBack below. Or go to my Berst Alerts Forum where a discussion in under way right now. And be sure to take our QuickPoll.
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